Here’s a shocker!? State Representative Todd Book (D- Portsmouth) has a problem with name recognition in the more populous western part of the district.? This is news to absolutely nobody, but, apparently, the Krikorian campaign who has spent money on yet another poll on the race in their public relations blitz to make his candidacy seem unbeatable.
Whenever I get a campaign poll, I’m already suspicious,? but when all I get is a press release with not even a redacted or abridged version of the poll data, I’m downright distrustful.? It leaves me having to parse the word-choice carefully to see what the poll does and does not say.
For example, David Krikorian’s campaign press release says:
In extensive polling of over 3,000 Democratic party voters who participated in both the 2006 and 2008 primaries,? 56.48% of respondents across the second congressional district have a favorable opinion of David Krikorian as the candidate to beat Jean Schmidt.
What does that mean?? Does 56% of Democratic primary voters hold a favorable opinion of David Krikorian or that that they have a favorable opinion as he is a primary candidate to beat Jean Schmidt?? If the poll question included Jean Schmidt (and we’re not given the wording of the question and the press release curiously includes the language about Schmidt in reporting the results), then it’s not hard to see how any Democratic candidate could get a favorability rating over 50%.
In comparison, neither Ted Strickland, Lee Fisher, or Jennifer Brunner polls above 50% among registered Democrats in the latest Quinny poll because a majority of registered Democrats said they don’t know enough about them to form an opinion.? These are candidates that have actually won statewide elections.? Therefore, it’s rather odd to see David Krikorian, who came in a distant third as a conservative Independent who only campaigned mostly in the eastern part of the district two years ago really getting above 50% favorability ratings throughout the sprawling Second Congressional after getting less than a quarter of the general election votes, so stunning you have to assume question bias.
Here’s what Krikorian’s poll found about Book:
26.62% of those polled responded that they had ?never heard of? Todd Book.? Book?s greatest issues with name recognition are in the two most populated counties in the district; 32.46% of respondents in Clermont County and 33.61% in Hamilton County did not recognize his name.
That’s it.? Not a single word about Book’s favorability ratings.? No indication that this poll even did a head-to-head matchup asking primary voters who’d they’d like vote for if the primary were held today.
Anyone really believe that Krikorian’s campaign was so stupid as to not ask that question?? Me, either.?? Therefore, the only conclusion is that it gave them a result they don’t want to disclose.
Looking at what the campaign did release, it’s entirely possible that Krikorian’s got the same name recognition problem that their press release claims Book has AND that Book has the same or better favorability ratings.? Because the press release doesn’t include both the data about Krikorian and Bookk on the same questions, you have to wonder why they’d consciously choose not to.
After all, if 26.62% of respondents have said that they’ve “never heard of” Todd Book, then that leaves 73% of Democratic primary voters who may have.? That’s not that bad of a name recognition problem.
When you actually take a step back and realize that the Krikorian campaign so carefully cherry picked what data to disclose that it doesn’t give the reader any way to really compare Book and Krikorian on favorable voter sentiment or name recognition, and that’s the only two issues the campaign was willing to disclose their results, you really have to wonder why the campaign even bothered issuing a press release.
This is the second time the Krikorian campaign issued a press release where the polling data they disclosed did not back up the wild assertions they made.? (Ironically, today’s press release actually PROVES my criticism of their last poll by proving that their claim that Book and Jim Parker share only 5-7% of the vote in their home counties.)
In today’s press release, the Krikorian campaign boldly claims that Krikorian has “Significant Fund-raising [sic] and Polling Advantage over Challenger.”? How can a campaign who’s candidate had to donate 80% of its money to get a whopping $60k cash-on-hand advantage, and whose own poll doesn’t show him winning in a head-to-head matchup can claim this is beyond me.
The Krikorian campaign promises that it’s different from the usual political campaign, but it’s been systematically engaged in some of the most intellectually dishonest spin I’ve ever seen.
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