I like to let breaking poll numbers sit for a while before commenting.? Let them age and cure.? So here’s my take on the recent spate of polling in Ohio.
I’ve written often that the current crop at ODP has yet to understand that they are where they are not because they know what they’re doing, but because of George W. Bush, Bob Taft, and Tom Noe, i.e., the political climate.? As a consultant, or a candidate, or some douchebag chairman of the ODP, if you do not internalize this fact, you are doomed to be vulnerable the next time the climate changes.? That is what’s happening to Ted Strickland, which the recent Quinny poll proves.? A sitting incumbent governor should not be polling at 40% one year out, tied with his opponent, but Ted is.
The economy is the ONLY issue in Ohio for the foreseeable future.? We Buckeyes are at the mercy of 30 solid years of conservative Republican economic dogma come to full glorious flower.? Ted Strickland can’t really do much about it except hold on for dear life, pray he doesn’t draw a primary, and hope Republicans nominate an opponent who has his fingerprints all over that catastrophe.? Thankfully, Ohio Republicans are about to do just that.
John Kasich is the poster child for the enactment of the entire Republican economic dogma, all the way down to his parasitic tenure at the very firm that nearly brought America to another Great Depression, Lehman Brothers.? It’s another gift for ODP from GOD ALMIGHTY.? Will ODP realize it, and take advantage?? They’d better.? After all, ODP’s only skill appears to be luck, and this stroke of luck is teed up nice and perky. It may be enough to re-elect Ted in the fall, unless…….
….unless Lee Fisher is on the ballot with him.? Yeah, it’s probably unfair to blame Lee Fisher for the jobs draught just because Lee was demonstratively, prancingly, with a flourish, at Lee’s urging, put in charge of JOBS by the governor.? But that’s what’s gonna happen.? If Jennifer Brunner doesn’t do it, Rob Portman will.
Which is why Jennifer Brunner will do it.? The best way to keep Lee from losing his 3rd statewide general election in a row, which he certainly will if he is the US Senate nominee, is to make sure his 3rd statewide loss in a row is this primary.? Lee purposefully made his position in government a JOBS position, and JOBS are the issue right now, and JOBS aren’t around.? The writing isn’t just on the wall for Lee, it is carved in stone.
Brunner’s surge is pretty odd.? The media narrative for Brunner has been awful, it’s the only “campaign” voters are seeing, unless voters are seeing the Ohio blogosphere.? I’m a blogger, I think we have influence, but we don’t have that kind of influence.?? It could be statistical noise, but the move is outside the margin of error.
What is going on?? Ohio Democratic primary voters don’t yet realize Lee is Mr. JOBS. ? I think Ohio Democrats are starting to realize that Lee Fisher really is the big fat loser he’s always been, we can’t afford to have him on the ballot in 2010, and that is moving the numbers.? Whatever is going on, the Quinny poll means Lee Fisher is softer than a down pillow, and if there were any doubt in the Brunner campaign about filing petitions, that doubt is gone, poof.? This poll pretty much guarantees we got ourselves that primary.? Which Brunner will win.
As for Rob Portman, meet the teabaggers, Rob!? The landscape in Ohio on the teabagger right is fertile for a repeat of NY-23 in Portman’s US Senate primary.? Tom Ganley’s primary challenge looked comic for a while, but in the wake of NY-23, Ganley is sitting pretty.? Portman is probably this moment trying to figure out how to get Ganley out of the primary, which of course will not happen.? Portman will have to run way further to the right than he is probably comfortable doing.? The potential for total fantastitude is endless.? Brunner will benefit.
Bottom line for Ohio Dems?? The big loser in this poll is Lee Fisher, the most terrified is Ted Strickland, and the big winner is Brunner.