The Environmental Defense Fund is running ads against Pat Tiberi on climate change and energy. Seeing these a ton on TV today:
Tiberi and Souder are both Republicans. Holden is a Blue Dog Democrat. Both Republicans are in near 60/40 districts. I’m not sure about IN-3, but OH-12 is a pretty solidly Republican district that has been slowly trending more Democratic since 2002. The ads in OH-12 are good softening ads, but absent a strong challenge with a solid candidate and a shit ton of money this district will not elect a Democrat. The strongest challenge thus far only netted a 57/43 loss (Shamansky in ’06). David Robinson was able to shave this to 55/42 with near zero money and little institutional support, but we’re nowhere near having this be a competitive district. Despite Robinson getting the most votes of a Democratic Congressional candidate EVER in this district in 2008 (152,234), Tiberi picked up over 50,000 more than his tally in 2006 to get him back to 2004 levels (197,447). There is certainly a strong argument that this district is being more and more populated by Democrats, but these numbers are not yet strong enough to swing it. Robinson actually won Franklin County by 10,000 votes, but was destroyed in Licking by 2x (18,924 votes) and Delaware by nearly 3x (36,059).
Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks recently announced she will run against Tiberi in 2010. Somebody please get her a new website! Ugh. Plenty of time, I guess. Bottom line on this district is it won’t be won by a Democrat until it’s redrawn, as it was in 2000 favoring Tiberi. That’s really the only explanation for his long tenure. Pat is a poster child for the dangers of gerrymandering.