McCain has committed himself to the theory that ‘the surge is working’ – and as long as violence in Iraq doesn’t explode some time before the election in November, this might just work for him.

However, it doesn’t look like that is going to happen.

That’s because the reduction in violence has a whole lot to do with our truce with Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army which might just be coming to an end

Hard-line Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr threatened “open war” as Iraqi and U.S. forces battled his Mahdi Army militia in two key strongholds Saturday, raising the specter that a truce credited with reducing violence could end soon.

 

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