PA Election Nears, Time to Move Goalposts

By On April 12, 2008 · 2 Comments

Expectation setting in PA is a dire hint for the Hillary campaign. Wolfson is clearly setting the stage for a narrow Clinton win due to recent polling:

Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said Obama has spent $6.5 million on TV ads in Pennsylvania, while the Clinton campaign has spent $2.5 million.

“He is doing everything he can to win in Pennsylvania,” Wolfson said. “And if he doesn’t win, it will be a significant defeat for him.”

Remember. She was up double digits not long ago. 18-20 points. Anything less than 15% is lower than expected. Anything less than 10% is a perceived loss for her. Anything less than 5% is a complete disaster! Howard and everyone else knows that Hillary is supposed to win and win big in PA. His suggestion that somehow any loss for Obama is a disaster is laughable.

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  • Eric,

    I agree with what you are saying in a way – but I think that she just needs to win to stay alive. She isnt going to catch him in the pledged delegates anyways, so I think that any victory she can claim is crucial. I think a loss would be a loss for Obama – whether he loses by 2% or 10%. Just my opinion obviously.

  • You are certainly right in terms of the ability of the Clinton team to spin viability. But then again they could probably lose and spin it based on some ludicrous electoral college analysis so in actuality it doesn’t matter in that sense.

    What DOES matter is the feelings of the super-delegates and I think if they see Clinton barely win in PA after being up by as much as 22 in polling, they will continue to break for Obama and make her path to the nomination as clear as mud.

    Make no mistake though. Margins matter greatly at this stage of the game.

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