The Traders Have Spoken: Obama to Win Nomination, Presidency

By On April 9, 2008 · 3 Comments

Book it:

Traders in the Dublin-based Intrade prediction market gave Democratic front-runner Barack Obama an 86 percent chance of being the Democratic presidential nominee, versus a 12.8 percent for Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady.

Results were similar on the Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa, with traders giving Obama an 82.9 percent chance of winning, versus a 12.8 percent chance for Clinton.

Intrade traders were betting the Democratic nominee would ultimately become president. They gave the Democrat a 59.1 percent chance of winning, versus a 48.8 percent chance for the Republican. Iowa traders gave the Democrat a 57.1 percent chance of winning, versus 46.3 percent for the Republican.

Yes, Connie. We want her to step down.

 

  • Hey! I was gonna post that.

    Anyway- Hillary is up a little now: Barack 86.0% to Hillary’s 13%.

    But I think one of the more interesting things on Intrade was the VP predictions: Jim Webb and Bill Richardson are leading the pack at around 11% each- followed closely by Hillary Clinton at 9%.

  • afs

    There is a charity driven prediction market (real money!) called http://www.bet2give.com

    Check out the presidential widget.

  • Pingback: Plunderbund - » Bet2Give Lets Your Predictions Do Some Good()

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