Until recently, I was certain I understood presidential elections and what it took to win. My theory went something like this:

?

1. Governors win presidential elections (Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush)

?

2. Senators lose presidential elections (Bob Dole, John Kerry Walter Mondale)

?

I was convinced that, to win in 2008, the Democrats must have a candidate with proven leadership skills; an executive of some sort. A Governor, preferably.? Maybe a General.? At the very least, a popular, big-city mayor.? But NOT another lousy Senator.

?

Then I started analyzing the data- and I had to throw out all of my initial assumptions.

?

Over the next few weeks, I will present my research in series of posts comparing the current batch of potential candidates against candidates of the past 100 years.? I will also analyze past election results and make predictions about the 2008 election.

?

In this first post, however, I will simply present the current batch of potential presidential candidates and explain why each of them is unique- i.e. why analysis of, and predictions for, the 2008 race will be so difficult.

?

Here we go?

?

Hillary Clinton (D) ? Unique Characteristic: SEX
If the Democrats select this Senator from NY as their candidate in 2008, they will be the first major political party in the US to select a woman as their candidate for the presidency.

?

Barack Obama (D) ? Unique Characteristic: RACE
This Illinois Senator’s father is from Africa.? While a number of African Americans have participated in Democratic primary elections, no African American candidate has ever been selected to represent a major political party in the Presidential Election.

?

Rudy Giuliani (R) ? Unique Characteristic: POLITICAL EXPERIENCE
A large number of Presidential candidates- and many Presidents- once served at state governors.?? But no major political party has ever selected a Mayor to be their Presidential candidate.

?

John McCain (R) ? Unique Characteristic: AGE
This Senator from AZ will turn 71 in 2008. ?The average age of a US President, at the time they assume office, is 55. ?Ronald Reagan, the current record holder, was only 69 when he was sworn in to office.

?

Please feel free to?add comments as new candidates announce…?
?

Tagged with:
 

Categories

Archives

Advertisement