OH-12 has the scoop. There are indeed some very interesting numbers here. The first thing that pops right out really:
In a head-to-head matchup, Tiberi has less than 50% of the vote (46% Tiberi, 30% Shamansky).
This is a classic sign of incumbent vulnerability. Less than half of the people in the 12th would vote for their sitting Congressman. This is bad for Pat. Real bad. The reason why is that Bob is coming on strong and getting his message out there and it is resonating. This lines up almost spot on to the anecdotal evidence I have been seeing. Dems are going to back this guy fully. Indies are going to break for him, and even Reps are supporting him in numbers unprecedented in the 12th.
The other reason why this sub-50% number is so big is that it doesn’t consider message. When people learn about both candidates, Bob Shamansky leapfrogs Tiberi 41/39. Ouch. This would be the reason that Tiberi and company has had that “just seen a ghost” look about them. They know the same thing and their polling (the accurate stuff, not the crap we’ll probably see floated as a result of this now) has to look much the same. I would be worried too.
Voters in the 12th also prefer a candidate who generally opposes Bush policies. Sucks for Pat that he has an 85% rubber stamp rate with Bush and 95% with the GOP caucus.
Now, if you are a rightie your first argument will be that this is not about Bush but about Tiberi’s performance in the district. Well, you’d have to do a quick Simpsonesque “Doh!” when you find out the district only has a 33% approval rate among Indies.
People need to start talking about this race as a prime pickup opportunity. We have a weak incumbent who shows very little actual leadership and a strong challenger whose message is very similar to what the voters are feeling here. If you haven’t done anything to help out the campaign yet, now would be a great time! www.shamanskyforcongress.com
There are many reasons why the voters in the 12th district don’t want to vote for Pat Tiberi. There are many reasons why they WILL vote for Bob Shamansky. I will be featuring them in upcoming posts.
Pat Tiberi is a follower. Bob Shamansky is a leader. Simple as that. Elect a leader this fall – Bob Shamansky.